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Monday, November 19, 2012

Eyeing a larger pie on hotel business

by Trimegah

SSIA increased ownership on its subsidiary, Suryalaya Anindita International (own Melia Jakarta, Meli Bali, and Banyan Tree Ungasan Resort), to 86.78% from 53.75%. SSIA allocated USD25mn for the addition, which is funded from internal cash and loan from Melia Hotel International. We believe this is a positive catalyst as SAI’s hotel business has wide GPM of 66% and contributes around 24% in SSIA’s gross profi t in 3Q12. However, please note that 3Q12 hotel revenue slipped 1% YoY, underperforming our expectation (only 66% from our FY12 hotel revenue), as Melia Jakarta still under renovation since Jun’11.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

3Q12 - ITMG

by Mandiri :

Indotambang:  Although  9M12  net  income  is  inline  (77%  of  FY),  its  9M12 operating profit is below consensus (72% of FY) (ITMG, Rp 40,900, under review)

3Q12 - HRUM

by  Trimegah

3Q12 earnings topped our estimate, upgrade 2012-2013 earnings HRUM posted 3Q12 earnings of USD36m which are 27% above our expectation, caused by higher than expected coal sales volumes (+5.3% QoQ and +38% YoY) and average selling price. Thus, we upgrade HRUM’s 2012 earnings by 2.7% to USD143m (-14% YoY) and 2013 earnings by 1% to USD170m (+22% YoY). It is worth noting that HRUM is the only company on our coverage which would book positive earnings growth in 2013 on the back of 12% YoY sales volumes growth and ASP growth of 3% YoY. We believe the increase in HRUM’s 2013 ASP would be helped by its short-term price contracts of around 3-6 months. We also believe that coal price shall slightly improve starting in 1Q13, backed by lower supply from Indonesian small miners, decreasing output from Australian producers  which have relatively high cash-costs, and decreasing export volumes from the U.S. as we expect 2013 natural gas price to increase to USD4/mmbtu from 2012’s low of USD1.9/mmbtu (current: 3.6/mmbtu).

Convincing performance and expansion plan - ERAA

by Trimegah

 ERAA posted good result with RP329bn net profi t in 3Q12, which represents 72% of our FY12E earnings of Rp454bn (net margin: 3.4%).  Our FY12E top line stands at Rp13.2tr, which is driven by Rp12tr on mobile phone sales while the rest is contributed by vouchers, accessories, notebooks, and iBox. The Company indicated to us that iBox’s 23 stores in 2012 (19 existing plus 3 to be opened in 4Q12) should generate about Rp300bn (Rp3bn/store/month) in revenues. We deem that the sum is achievable considering Apple products have high ASP (averaging Rp12.6m). New 60 erafone, 35 iBox, 6 Megastores , and 3 Android Nation outlets are planned in 2013.

Enjoying the highest margin ever BSDE

by Samuel

Highlights:

 PT Bumi Serpong Damai di 9M12 membukukan pendapatan· Rp2.63  triliun, atau naik 27% YoY, sementara laba bersih  mencapai Rp902 miliar, atau tumbuh 31%.

Secara QoQ, pendapatan di 3Q12 mencapai Rp1.03 triliun atau naik 28% QoQ sementara laba bersih mencapai Rp395 miliar, naik 64% QoQ.

Strong margin improvement in 3Q12 for CIMB

by Samuel

 Highlights:

PT Holcim Indonesia (SMCB) membukukan pendapatan Rp6.5 triliun di 9M12, naik 20.5% YoY, dan laba bersih berhasil tumbuh signifikan 23.1% YoY menjadi Rp911 miliar.

Secara QoQ,  kinerja SMCB naik signifikan dengan laba bersih tumbuh 59.5% QoQ menjadi Rp407 miliar  meski pendapatan hanya naik 6.7% QoQ. Profitabilitas di 3Q12 jauh membaik dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya dengan gross dan net margin naik 900bps dan580bps.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Astra International

by Mandiri

Lingering risks over the mining division continued to worsen, while the much-anticipated LCGC would only give a mere 2% addition to FY13F sales. UNTR has underperformed JCI by 32%, while ASII by only 5%, thanks to the solid 4W sales. Its auto-division is now trading at 17x PE, becoming the group’s backbone amidst weak UNTR and AALI. Risk-return is not attractive, as any 4W sales dissapointment could de-rate ASII’s valuation. Reiterate Neutral.


Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE-BUY-IDR1,240-TP:IDR1,450)

By Bahana

3Q12 results: Higher than our and consensus estimate

§        3Q12 earnings +32% y-y and 63% q-q: BSDE reported 3Q12 net profit of IDR395b (12% higher than our estimate), +32% y-y and 63% q-q, which brought 9M12 bottom line to IDR902b, +31% y-y. This is higher than consensus’ (82%) and our (90%) estimates.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

SSIA 3Q2012

by Trimegah :

Earnings Discussion

• SSIA posted 3Q12 bottom line of Rp178bn, +18.3% QoQ and +250.1% YoY, formed 81% of our and 78 % of the street’s expectations.

• 9M12 earnings reached Rp553bn, +205.3% YoY, accounting for 104% of our and 93% of the street’s FY12 estimates.

• SSIA’s 9M12 gross margin improved by 9.7% to 36.3% and net margin grew by 12.5% to 20.8%.

ASRI 3Q2012

by Trimegah : ASRI

• ASRI booked 3Q12 bottom line of Rp212bn, grew 17.1% QoQ while surged by 69.8% YoY, 5.6% lower than our 3Q12 earnings estimate.

• 9M12 earnings reached Rp738bn, an outstanding growth of 78.1% YoY, forming 70% of our and 73% of the street’s FY12 earnings. This growth is helped by improvement in 9M12 gross margins of 5.5% YoY to 62.7% and net margins by 2.5% YoY to 43%, on the back of wider margin from land sales (80.3% in 9M12 vs. 63.6% in 9M11).

Friday, November 2, 2012

3Q12 performance: Hurt by low ASP and ore export tax

by Bahana

 1 November 2012  Bahana Beacon – Result Flash

Aneka Tambang (ANTM-REDUCE-IDR1,280-TP:Under Review)

§        Net profit down 72% y-y but up 57% q-q: ANTM reported 3Q12 net profit of IDR152b (46% of our 3Q12), down 72% y-y but up 57% q-q, which brought 9M12 earnings to IDR628b, down 60% y-y.  This 9M12 set of results represents 50% of our and 53% of consensus full-year estimate.

Agung Podomoro Land : HOLD; Rp365;

by DBS

Price Target : Rp375; APLN IJ

Above expectations

 · 9M12 earnings exceeded expectation, accounting for 99%/97% of our/consensus estimates

·  Strong 3Q12 earnings on GPM surge

·  Forecast and TP under review


United Tractors : HOLD; Rp20,950;

by DBS

Price Target : Rp21,250 (previous: Rp22,300); UNTR IJ

Earnings risk remains
· 3Q12 net profit in line
· Spare parts division supports Komatsu’s margins
· Cut FY12-14F earnings by 1-5% after imputing lower Komatsu and Pama sales
· Maintain Hold, trimmed TP to Rp21,250.

Strong results, but valuation is fair

by DBS

Tower Bersama Infrastructure : HOLD; Rp5,050;

Price Target : Rp5,300 (previous: Rp3,900); TBIG IJ

· 9M12 EBITDA of Rp920bn (+70% y-o-y) was 6% ahead of our estimate as  TBIG added ~2,600 tenants in the period vs our 2,200 estimate

Monday, October 29, 2012

Bukit Asam (PTBA-REDUCE-IDR16,100-TP:IDR13,100)

by Bahana : PTBA

29 October 2012  Bahana Beacon – Result Flash

3Q12 performance: Net earnings 25% lower than expected

§        3Q12 net profit down 7% q-q and 10% y-y: PTBA announced 3Q12 bottom line of IDR640b (25% lower than our 3Q12 estimate), down 7% q-q and 10% y-y. This brought 9M12 net income to IDR2.2t (-5.5% y-y), accounting for 67% of our full-year estimate and 66% of consensus.