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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Astra International: Recovery in 2H as supply returns to normal

by DBS Securities

• Flat 4W sales in May, but 2H11 sales are expected to be considerably stronger due to normalised production and seasonality

• May 2W sales breaks new high

• Maintain Buy and Rp65,000 TP

Flat May 4W sales volume, but 2H11 expected to improve ASII’s 4W sales volume was flat at 32,153 units in May, inching up 1.4% m-o-m but slipping 2.1% y-o-y. Its market share improved by 0.4% ppt m-o-m to 52.7%, but contracted 1.6% ppt y-o-y. The flat result was widely anticipated because of disruption to the auto production chain after the Japan quake. Despite the flat sales in May, total 5M11 sales volume is still broadly in line at 39% of our FY11F 4W sales volume.

Resumes normal production, supply recovering. Despite the quake, both Toyota and Daihatsu did not adjust their 2011 production targets, which is 385,000 units combined. This implies both automakers are confident they can recover more than 50% of the lost April-May production in 2H11 by running overtime shifts. Given that Toyota and Daihatsu have resumed normal production since early June, dealerships’ inventories are likely to normalise by July.

Upcoming Eid-ul Fitr will support sales. Despite slower supply in April and May, demand for 4W had remained strong, creating pent-up demand. More importantly, sales growth will also be supported by stronger demand during the pre Eid-ul Fitr period.

Our channel checks reveal June sales picked up partly because buyers have started to pre-book before the Eid-ul Fitr holiday season. Speaking of Toyota, it seems sales for the first 20 days of this month is 20,000 units and press reports indicate units sales could easily reach 23,000 (+18% m-o-m) in June.

In addition, we are also entering the seasonally stronger sales quarter. Historically, sales normally spiked one to two months prior to Eid ul-Fitr. This year, Eid ul-Fitr will fall on end- August. Even after Eid ul-Fitr, we expect sales to pick up in the 4Q supported by end-of-year promotions. Thus, we expect stronger performance in 2H11 to make up more than 50% of our FY11F sales volume (485K units).

May 2W sales break record

May 2W sales in May hit a record high of 377,355 units (+0.2% m-o-m, +10.3% y-o-y), and ASII’s market share improved by 0.9 ppt m-o-m and 3.8 ppt y-o-y. 2W sales remained strong because ASII’s 2W local content is almost 98% compared to 65% for its 4W’s. Hence, the impact from Japan ’s quake was minimal. 5M11 sales is in line at 42% of our FY11F sales of 4 mil units.

Market share gain due to attractive new launches. YTD, ASII’s market share has improved by 4.6 ppt y-o-y to 51.1%. It regained market share from Yamaha, its main competitor whose market share is now 41.3%. ASII’s success was mainly due to Astra Honda Motor’s timely response to the shift in market preference towards automatic transmission 2W (AT 2W). It added three new models that are specifically designed to penetrate the AT 2W market in 1H11.

Reiterate Buy, Rp65,000/share TP. ASII is currently trading at relatively comfortable 14.4x FY11F PE, 33% cheaper than its peak valuation in 2010. But heading into 2H11, the supply chain should start to normalise, while sales are also seasonally stronger. Hence, we expect sentiment to improve towards ASII, in line with expectations of stronger auto sales in 2H11. As such, we maintain our positive stance on the counter.

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