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Sunday, July 3, 2011

Astra International : Key proxy to consumption

by CLSA Securities

Astra is a key proxy to the region’s consumption story. It is now the fifth largest company by market cap in the region.

Astra has a strong presence in major sectors of the economy. Each division will keep on growing, but we see auto business and United Tractors as the main growth drivers in the future, at 15-20% cagr.

We raised our near term profit forecasts by 12-17% and our TP on the back of recovery in the 4W market, the strong momentum in the 2W and recovery of equipment and mining contracting business of United Tractors.

We note that there is near term risk on Astra due to market sentiment, and Astra being a key proxy is most vulnerable.

However, we think any weakness is a buying opportunity. There is still much upside to our estimates as GDP/capita rises and Astra’s businesses expand.

Maintain BUY on Astra. Our TP of Rp75,000 provides 21% upside from current level. Astra now trades at 12.8x PE12 and 11.3x PE13, in-line with the market.

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