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Sunday, July 17, 2011

PT. Bank Negara Indonesia. Tbk - 1H11 - Result Indication

by Samuel Securities : BBNI

5M11 Terrible performance. Based on the report of Bank Indonesia, to 5M11,

· Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) recorded a net profit of Rp1.65 trillion, under Our estimates and the market or just menstranslasikan 30% and 31% of FY11E. This achievement is also described for 2 months in 2Q11 net profit of only increased Rp398 billion or an average of Rp199 per month, or significantly below average net income per month in 1Q11 amounting to Rp417 billion.

Possible downgrade earnings yield. Loans of up to Rp138 trillion recorded 5M11

· (+17% YoY; 1.5% ytd) and the deposit Rp185.3 trillion (+9.3% YoY: -2.7% ytd), still according to our estimates. However, net interest income only 32% of the estimated us, which we expected due to decreased earnings yield. Decrease in our yield expected due to increasing competition in the market becomes the focus of BNI as a corporation, Small & medium enterprises, and consumers are forced BBNI lower interest rates.

1H11 performances possibly below expectation. Fee income from the recovery
· 2-month loans in 2Q11 is significant at about Rp 1 trillion, but can not be leading to higher profits due to an increase in the other non-operating expenses significantly due to impairment of about Rp1.8 trillion. by looking at 5M11 poor performance, then there is the possibility of performance will be in 1H11 below our estimate and the market.

Potential projection downgrade. We still maintain the projection us

· but with a potential downgrade if the 1H11 result under our estimates. The potential that we will revise earnings yield is due to the reason that we mentioned above. For now, we still maintain the target price at Rp4, 500 which translates PBV'11-12E 2.6x - 2.4x, pending the result 1H11. we still recommend HOLD to BBNI (although the target price we offer upside 14%) due to poor performance of our concerns 1H11. maintain Hold

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