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Wednesday, August 3, 2011

PT Malindo Feedmill Tbk - Abandoned Baby

By SMART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GROUP

MAIN (closing price of Rp 1.240, - as 3 August 2011) PT Malindo Feedmill Tbk is the issuers engaged in the agribusiness sector, including manufacturing and selling animal feed as well as the distribution of day-old-chickens (DOC). In this sector, MAIN will be compared with the CPIN, JPFA, and SIPD.

Based on financial reports 1H - 2011 which has been released, MAIN recorded a net profit increase of 59% compared to 1H - 2010 (USD 78.6 billion versus USD 49.4 billion). CPIN while net income in 1H-2011 grew 33% dam SIPD grew 40%. To prevent the "refraction" as in ADMG earnings, then earnings quarter to quarter must be taken into consideration the latest.

QII-2011 MAIN profit of Rp 48.6 billion vs. Q1 Earnings - 2011 à USD 30 Billion Up 60%

QII-2011 MAIN profit of Rp 48.6 Billion Profit vs. QII-2010 Rp 37 Billion Up 30% à

MAIN profit increase was supported by increased sales by 40.2% or higher compared to the CPIN (26.28%) and SIPD (17.78%), while JPFA not yet formally issued financial statements. From the above data, it can be concluded that MAIN is the best performance when viewed from the side of profit and sales growth.

The highest ROE in the sector held by the CPIN with a ratio of 43%, followed by 42% MAIN, JPFA (based QI-2011) 26.69% and 3.69% SIPD. Spread a thin enough between MAIN and CPIN be a signal that the ability to compete with the profitability of MAIN is the sector leader.

This sector has grown most rapidly cycle on QIII each year so that entered the month of August to September there are enormous possibilities for the rally, especially the period of fasting and widths are expected to boost sales of each issuer in the sector.

DOC price increased by 35% during the month of July 2011 can be a positive sentiment for the MAIN

Valuation and target:

Using the assumption PE Ratio issuers fodder in late 2012, then the PE MAIN currently only about 8.9 x or under JPFA (12x) and CPIN (18x). MAIN target of the current fair price is Rp 1.650 / share (FY 2012 PE 12x) until the end of 2011.

Technical Analysis:

MAIN empty zone has entered the chart on the penetration resistance of Rp 1.200 to allow the rally to the level of USD 1.350 and the last rally for 3 weeks followed by a sharp increase in volume.

Buy Point: Rp 1.200 to 1.240. Target 1: Rp 1.350. Target 2: Rp 1.450. Target 3: Rp 1.650. Stop Loss: 1.100.

If you (traders / investors) are in a position ADMG unrealized loss on the stock, then you can do the following strategies:

- Cut loss 50% ADMG and move those funds to be invested in the SSIA, TBLA, CFIN and MAIN are currently have the momentum up. ADMG recorded a good performance, but after the action is sell off on Friday last week, likely will move sideways ADMG advance for some time. So will you better take advantage of the sideways trend to do the switching part ADMG into stocks that have upward momentum up to 1 month ahead.

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