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Thursday, October 27, 2011

Bukit Asam Tbk - 9M11 results below expectation

by Mandiri Securities 

Bukit Asam: 9M11 results below expectation, 67.6% ours and 67.2% consensus (PTBA, Rp17,350, Buy, Rp 27,000)
∙ Below expectation. PTBA posted 9M11 net profit of Rp2,326bn (+68.6%yoy, -15.8%qoq) followed by revenue of Rp7,755bn (+31.4%yoy, -6.0%qoq). It is below our expectation and consensus which represent about 67% of our FY11F.
∙ Slightly lower sales volume in 3Q11. PTBA sold 9.9Mt coal in 9M11 which slightly higher than 9M10 of 9.8Mt. But on quarterly basis it declined by 4% qoq mainly from export sales, which dropped 26% qoq vs domestic sales that grew by 8.3%qoq. Weighted ASP in 3Q11 of US$95/ton was slightly lower than previous quarter since USD dollar appreciation has dragged down its domestic selling price in US$ term. Coal railway transportation in 9M11 increased by 5%yoy to 8.5Mt.
∙ Lower margin in 3Q11. In 3Q11 PTBA posted lower margin with a gross margin of 48.9% and operating margin of 33.8% vs previous quarter of 51.5% and 36.6% respectively, mainly driven by lower revenue while the opex relatively stable since there was Idul Fitri bonus payment. As a result Opex to Sales (in %) jumped significantly in 3Q11 as seen in the chart below.
∙ We are likely to revisit our earnings forecasts due to the underperforming results.

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