Sunday, October 30, 2011

PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) - 9M11 results below ours and consensus; Minister of Energy approves gas swap plan with Singapore

by Mandiri Securities

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) reported a decline in unaudited net income to Rp4.5tn (-4.0%, +8.1%qoq), which represents 69.9% of our FY11F estimate and 66.4% consensus. However, it shows a slight improvement on quarter basis on operational and bottom line.

Distribution volume is 785 mmscfd (-4.4%yoy, +0.4qoq) due to lower contracted gas supplied from main field such as Pertamina and ConocoPhilips.

We are currently reviewing our forecast on PGAS, currently traded at PER11F-12F 10.2x and 10.2x, respectively

New Minister of Energy, Jero Wacik, approves the gas swap agreement to Singapore, previously arranged by BP Migas.

For info, under the gas swap, Gajah Baru field, operated by Premier Oil, will supply 140 mmscfd (previously only 100 mmscfd) to Singapore, while ConocoPhilips will allocate 40 mmscfd from its production to PLN, through PGAS network

This may add additional volume of about 40 mmscfd revenue for PGAS, since it will use its pipeline. Yet, whether it is on distribution or transmission scheme not yet decided.

If PGAS will treat the gas as distribution, there is a 10% potential upside on FY12F net income. No significant impact if transmission scheme applied

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