Sunday, November 27, 2011

Bumi Resources - Outperforming

by Goldman Sachs : BUMI

Goldman Sachs ("GS") released the 'update' latest research on PT Bumi Resources, Tbk. yesterday to institutional investors in the world consumption. Following up on the latest quarter 3-2011 release by BUMI, here is the assessment of GS.

BUMI inform losses report of U.S. $ 46 jt alone for quarter 3-2011. The hole for the first 9 months 2011, net income claimed by the Earth who only reached 51% dr-year projection of a full-GS in 2011, and only 50% dr Bloomberg consensus.

BUMI posted a profit of U.S. $ 234jt 'one-off' or 'non-recurring' in 1-2011 semester who derive the majority of forex and derivative gains, then U.S. $ 99 mill from TSB profits disappear without trace swallowed losses during the quarter 3-2011. Even according to GS jk conditions improved beyond expectations siding for BUMI, GS still projecting net profit of U.S. $ 174jt principal during the first 9 months 2011 only 39% from GS projection in 2011.

Analyses resullt from business operations running below expectations. EBIT fell 11% QoQ half of BSR caused by rising production costs & TRN its production vol YTD. Earth has sold 46.4 MT for the first 9 months 2011, only 70% from GS 66 MT projection.

GS noted that BUMI has further capitalizes cash cost of U.S. $ 25jt products to 'deferred stripping costs' pd 3-2011 quarter, assuming 100% ownership in the mine KPC / Arutmiin. Total accumulation 'deferred stripping costs' pd the current balance sheet swelled to U.S. $ 699jt, who has same base 100% 52% from the shareholders' funds. GS noted that BUMI has erase U.S. $ 275 mill'deferred stripping costs' during FY09.

Base on GS analysis, cash flow from operations adjusted who powered on the post-stripping costs'deferred 'first 9 month was 2011 vs. U.S. $ 0.2 mill. EBITDA of U.S. $ 907 jt. GS predict negative impact as market reaction to financial report of quarter 3-2011 release by BUMI.

GS once maintain SELL recommendations and MSK to within CL-Conviction List augural highest level of confidence within a recommendation. price set the target GS for BUMI is Rp1.500

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