by Mandiri Securities
(CC)Tire Manufacture: PCR sales volume in 11M11 up by 3.7% yoy (MASA, Rp500, Neutral) (GJTL, Rp2,975, Buy, TP: Rp3,000)
Based on data from APBI (Indonesian Tire Manufacturer Association), 11M11 PCR (passenger car radial) sales volume reached 46.9mn units (+3.7%yoy) translating to 91.0% of FY target. APBI is targeting FY11F sales volume to reach 51.56mn (+4.0%yoy) vs. 49.6mn in 2010. An export sale was still the largest contributor, with contribution 70.1%, while replacement market and OEM (original equipment manufacturer) contributed 21.5% and 8.4%, respectively.
However, 11M11 PCR production reached 46.4mn units (+2.4%yoy) translating to 98.3% of FY target. APBI is targeting PCR production in FY11F to reach 47.2mn units, down by 5.3%yoy compared to 49.9mn units in FY10 since APBI recorded inventory from 2010 production reached 2.4mn units.
For MASA, we are targeting FY11F PCR sales volume to reach 6.7mn units (+21.7%yoy) and 2W to reach 4.5mn units (+80.4%yoy), while revenue is targeted to reach Rp2.7tn (+35.5%yoy). While for FY12F, PCR sales volume is targeted to reach 9.5mn units (+41.8%yoy), 2W to reach 5.0mn units (+12.5%yoy, and revenue of Rp4.0tn (+45.4%yoy). We have a Neutral recommendation on MASA, which is trading at PER12F of 17.4x.
For GJTL, we are targeting FY11F PCR sales volume to reach 12.8mn units (+23.9%yoy), while bias tire and 2W is targeted to reach 4.0mn units (-3.7%yoy) and 25.5mn units (+22.1%yoy), respectively. While for FY12F, PCR sales volume is targeted to reach 12.6mn units (-1.2%yoy), bias tire of 4.0mn units (+0.0%yoy), 2W of 29.8mn units (+16.7%yoy, and revenue of Rp13.0tn (+11.1%yoy). We have a Buy recommendation on GJTL which is trading at PER12F of 11.6x