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Friday, January 20, 2012

Bank Victoria International Tbk.

by OSK

In 3Q11, issuers print a profit increase of +140.7%, compared to the same period before her.

The increase in net profit was partly due to the increase in Earning before tax growth companies 2X compared to 3Q10. Meanwhile BVIC plans utuk Bonds issued Rp500 billion. at least 200 billion of bond proceeds will be used to pay off some bonds that will mature next year.

AKR Corporindo.Tbk - Keep Improving its infrastructure

by Samuel Securities

• FY11 indication. Based on meetings with management AKRA, the company gives an indication of its sales target for 2011 can be reached Rp18.6 trillion, up 52% ​​YoY while net income basis is estimated at Rp610 billion, grew 96% YoY (in-line with our estimates). The increase in performance is supported by growth in volume of distribution of petroleum during 2011 a significant approximately 47% YoY to reach 2 million KL.

Buana Listya Tama Tbk - Company Update

by Etrading : BULL

Expansion Plan

The addition of six ships from ships leased from the parent company (BLTA) as of January 2011, and re-operation of FPSO / FSO after experiencing the process of upgrading and conversion in 2010, became the driving company revenue in 2011. We estimate the company's revenue growth in 2011 could reach 78% compared to 2010. However some BULL expansion plans in 2011 was little resistance due to some technical issues, including changes to specifications by the charterer on a tender boat which followed. This resulted in not obtaining the procurement of new ships, so that the various development plans BULL become a little stagnant and accumulated for the year 2012.

Harum Energy Tbk - HRUM is “Smell Good”

by ‎Etrading

Impressive Volume Growth

HRUM is the 6th largest bituminous coal producer in Indonesia with volume production in 2010 totalling of 7.4 mn tonnes. HRUM recorded an impressive volume growth with 38% CAGR 2007‐2010 and we expect HRUM will record 29% CAGR 2011‐2014 backed by its solid infrastructure. Vertically Integrated operations HRUM has vertical integration of downstream infrastructure, its enable the company to increase its efficiency and Supply reliability. HRUM has dedicated barging and transhipment facilities through its subsidiary namely Layar Lintas Jaya (LLJ).

Semen Gresik - Contender Strikes Back

by ‎Etrading

Production capacity expansion boost future performance The capacity constrain has made the company loss its market share for 3 years in a row, this condition also benefited the under capacity company such as SMCB and INTP to gain market share. In the past, the company expands the capacity by debottlenecking or upgrading which only add slightly to its capacity, however due to strong cement demand, the Company will build new plants in Tuban, East Java and Tonasa, Sulawesi. This year we believe the company’s sales will grow 11.6% backing by 20% capacity expansion while the bottom line will grow to 20.5%.

Gozco Plantations Tbk. - Land Banks Under the Belt

by Etrading

Left and right we are seeing plantations scrambling to acquire land to add on to their current land banks. In the midst of moratorium law and intense scrutiny from organization like WWO will escalate the fight for lands. Current land banks for GZCO relative to other much more established company is plenty enough to avoid any road bumps in the future resulting from the scarcer and scarcer lands and or difficult land clearing regulations that will hinder new plantings for future production growth.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

BW Plantation - Aggressive New Plantings

by ‎Etrading : BWPT

In the midst of moratorium law and maturing palm plantation industry, BWPT is set for the next years to come with approximately 93,000 ha under their belt of which as of December 31st 2010, 52,060 ha is planted. Across the industry, BWPT in the last few years had implemented an aggressive policy of new plantings. A more established plantation with limited extra land bank will want to wait before they regenerate old trees with the new ones and as a result they did not plant new trees on such a big scale like BW Plantation did. Hacking down still producing trees albeit old ones is the same like plugging one of their cash flow, this is one of the main challenges that a more established plantation with limited new land banks have. We believe this will benefit BWPT for the next years to come when other more established plantations are experiencing a declining yield per Ha as a result of their maturing plantation age profile.

Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk - A Fully Integrated Plantation Company

by Etrading : UNSP

Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP.JK) currently managing more than 125,000Ha planted area and operates 12 factories with combined capacity of 715,000MT per annum producing a combination of upstream and downstream products namely crude palm oil, palm kernel, rubber, and oleo chemicals. With the current export tax environment for Oil Palm products in Indonesia that is more conducive toward the downstream players, we believe that UNSP will be one of the beneficiaries trough its full integrated Oil Palm business. On top of it, UNSP has the opportunity to capture strategic synergy from the upstream production to the value-added manufacturing of downstream derivatives.

Surya Semesta Internusa: Company update - Raising 2012 Targets on Robust Demand

by OSK Nusadana

2012 orderbook already exceeds our sales forecast.

With the recent additional purchase order from Isuzu for a 30ha industrial land, the company has bagged a total purchase order of 120ha at an ASP of USD83/sqm, thereby exceeding our sales forecast of 110ha. This has prompted us to raise our FY12 sales assumption to 150ha, which is achievable as SSIA would get additional orders for the remaining 11 months. Meanwhile, we maintain our ASP assumptions of USD90 and USD120 per sqm for 2012 and 2013 respectively. The company’s offer price for land is USD110/sqm in Jan 2012. We also raise our sales assumption for FY13 from 130ha to 160ha, as we expect the demand for industrial land to remain strong next year on robust investment (FDI and DDI) and manufacturing activities in the country. Manufacturing has been the backbone of Indonesia’s economy, comprising 24% of total GDP (see Exhibit 1).
 

ADHI KARYA – Keep Sustainable Ahead

by Etrading Securities 

Order book in FY11F boosts ADHI earnings.

Kinerja ADHI pada FY11F, kami memperkirakan pertambahan pendapatan yang signifikan dari 9M11-FY11F yaitu bertambah 123% menjadi Rp6.9 triliun pada FY11F. Dengan proyek terbesar berasal dari pemerintah yaitu proyek pertamina EPC RFCC berkapasitas 62 ribu BPSD di Cilacap senilai US$931.48 juta. Kami berekspektasi kedepannya ADHI tetap akan memperlihatkan pertumbuhan dengan proyek single-year maupun multi-year.

Monday, January 9, 2012

PT SURYA SEMESTA INTERNUSA - TP 1,030/sh - Jewel of Land

by Ciptadana : SSIA

We reinitiate our coverage on PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) with a Buy rating and 12-month SOTP based target price of Rp1,030. The surging industrial land demand, combined with skyrocketing industrial land price has put industrial estate player on a track to reap the fortune. We believe that SSIA has a brighter prospect than its industrial estate peers, given its most feasible land inventory replenishing plan. In addition, its sustainable construction business and stable cash fl ow stream from its hospitality business also add more to its NAV.

PT INTERNATIONAL NICKEL INDONESIA - TP 3,700/sh - Cost efficient company on a gloomy nickel price outlook

by Ciptadana Securities

We like International Nickel Indonesia (INCO) for its cost efficiency program through newly commenced hydro power plant and its growth expansion plan; nevertheless, we think the unexciting outlook of nickel price would hold back INCO’s performance.

In addition, due to the overhaul and rebuild program in late FY11 and continue in early this year, we expect INCO’s production will slow down during FY11-12F period but will recover in FY13F. We re-initiate our coverage on INCO with HOLD recommendation and target price of Rp3,700/share (rounded up).

Telkom Indonesia - BUY Recommendation

by Ciptadana Sec

We reinstate our coverage on Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) with a Buy recommendation and 12-month SOTP based target price of Rp9,000/sh. Against the backdrop of saturated telco industry, we see that TLKM still possess the strong defensive characteristic due to its dominant position in cellular market, strong financial firepower, its’ up-trending data and internet revenue, and the potential upside from unlocking its tower assets value through IPO.

Property Sectors - Upward Momentum

by Batavia Prosperindo Securities

• Solid Domestic Economy

Indonesia is still on the track of positive economic development, with a stable current GDP growth of 6.5%. Driven mainly by strong domestic consumption, Indonesia has become an attractive investment destination. Foreign Direct Investment for nine month of 2011 stood at US$9.1 billion, and portfolio investment totaling to US$4.4 billion. Year on year inflation rate at November 2011 remain stable at 4.44%, meanwhile BI rate kept at 6%.

Friday, January 6, 2012

PT. Elnusa Tbk at Glance

by Etrading Securities

PT Elnusa Tbk merupakan perseroan yang bergerak pada bidang minyak dan gas. Perseroan, melalui anak perusahaannya menawarkan jasa yang mencangkup geophysical data, drilling, dan jasa oilfield. Elnusa juga memberikan jasa informasi teknologi kepada industri minyak layaknya perusahaan lain. Dengan kepemilikan terbesar yaitu PT Pertamina (Persero) sebesar 41.67%, selanjutnya dipegang oleh PT Benakat Petroleoum Energy sebesar 37.67%, Lucy Sycilia selaku Direksi sebesar 0.01% dan sisanya dimiliki public sebesar 21.76%.

United Tractors - Unleashing Coal Business Potential

by Ciptadana Sec

PT UNITED TRACTOR - TP 31,150/sh

We initiate our coverage on United Tractors (UNTR) with BUY recommendation on the back of 1) solid heavy equipment demand 2) sturdy coal mining activity from increasing production and 3) accelerating contribution from its coal mining business.

Our valuation of UNTR is based on DCF valuation method assuming a WACC of 12% and a terminal growth of 3%. We arrive at a target price of Rp31,150, at which UNTR is trading at 20.8X FY11F PF, 16.6X FY12F PE and 13.6X FY13F PE.

Favorable CPO Player

by Indopremier Securities

BWPT remained favorable in local CPO universe. 9M11 yoy result stayed solid, but muted on quarterly basis. Long term sector outlook remains compelling since demand will outpace supply, despite recent volatility price caused by uncertain global economics condition. We maintain our BUY recommendation with target price of Rp1,330, as we could see an equivalent result between BWPT’s 9M11 overall margins with our full year forecast.

PT Jasa Marga Tbk - Entitled to Premium

by Indopremier Securities

Entitled to Premium

JSMR reported 9M11 financials in-line with our estimates that goes for Rp1.45tn net profit and Rp4.8tn revenue this year. At yesterday’s closing price, JSMR is trading at 16X our FY12 estimates, above its regional peers, while at the favorable spot in terms of PEG ratio. In view of Indonesia’s resilient traffic on the back of its continued economic growth, we view the counter as defensive one with DCFderived target price of Rp4,800/share.

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) - Hold on Premium

by Indopremier Securities

Delayed in replanting scheme few years ago has made AALI lost its growth momentum. Declining FFB production signal continues surely caused by its aging plantation profile combined with insufficient unplanted landbank. Nonetheless, we are still calling Hold for AALI given its good management profile, liquid shares, and future expansion plans view to sugar industry and CPO downstream.

Holcim Indonesia Tbk - Good Performance

by Batavia Prosperindo Securities

• 9M-2011 financial report showing good result

The 9M-2011 financial report showed that SMCB recorded revenue of Rp. 5,408.08 bn, increasing 26.15% compared to the 9M-2010’s of Rp. 4,287.12 bn. As for the net income, SMCB managed to grab profit of Rp. 740.42 bn, growing 19.28% compared to the 9M-2010 net income of Rp. 620.75 bn. This good result was supported by increase in Indonesian cement demand and strong sales of Holcim brand cement. As per 9M-2011, SMCB revenue and net income growth is better than its peer such as INTP and SMGR.

BW Plantation - Profitability Margins Remain Intact

by AAA Securities

BWPT’s performance remains intact in 9M11 with revenue jumped by 57.9% yoy and net profit by 65.3% yoy. Despite the drought, BWPT managed to maintain its high gross profit margin at 66.1% and net profit 35.6%. We however, adjusted down our revenue forecast and up our COGS forecast due to the lower FFB production and higher than expected third parties purchase of raw material in the 9M11. We recommend BUY with TP Rp1,300 which still gives potential upside of 16.1%.

Energi Mega Persada Tbk - ENRG - ONWJ acquisition a lucrative deal indeed

by Mandiri Sekuritas

We recently met with the senior management of ENRG to learn more about the company’s move to acquire a majority stake in CNOOC ONWJ Ltd. Overall, the acquisition may lift proportionate EBITDA estimate by 38% and EPS by 29% for FY12E, based on conservative (zero growth) assumption for the newly acquired asset. With major EPS uplift in 1Q12 coming from the consolidation of CNOOC ONWJ Ltd, and another uplift in 3Q12 coming from the new gas flow from Kangean TSB field, FY12E is set to be a year of major turnaround for the company with a potential quadrupling of EBITDA and a ten-fold increase in EPS. The forecast and valuation table presented below has not accounted for the deal’s EPS accretion that could place the stock’s FY12E P/E at below 8x.