by Samuel Securities
• FY11 indication. Based on meetings with management AKRA, the company gives an indication of its sales target for 2011 can be reached Rp18.6 trillion, up 52% YoY while net income basis is estimated at Rp610 billion, grew 96% YoY (in-line with our estimates). The increase in performance is supported by growth in volume of distribution of petroleum during 2011 a significant approximately 47% YoY to reach 2 million KL.
• Additional Tanks Will be operational by mid-year. This year, AKRA estimates that some tanks for petroleum and chemical terminals are being built to operate in mid 2012. Thus, the company's terminal tank capacity increased by about 76.500 to 619.150 KL KL.
• Budgeted FY12 capex of Rp1.2 Bn. This year capex allocated AKRA around Rp1.24 trillion from internal cash. We estimate the company's internal cash reached Rp1.4 trillion. The Company will use these funds for the purchase of ships such as barges and SPOB, and includes the cost of capex for tank terminals and upgrading coal hauling road in Borneo (Tapin & Estuary Teweh).
• Update on Coal Business. At present, the contribution of coal mines AKRA only estimated 5 billion in FY11 with an estimated production of around 7,000 tonnes (300 thousand tons below expectations). This year, coal production expected to reach 1 million tons. In addition, the infrastructure for coal mining in Kalimantan, such as coal hauling road and coal terminal in the Gulf Timbau targeted to operate in 2013.
• Outlook 2012. Management also indicated that revenue in 2012 is estimated to reach Rp24.9 trillion while net profit is estimated at Rp735 billion. While the volume of distribution of petroleum expected to reach 2.5 million KL in line with the addition of tank terminal capacity in the middle of this year. We see the limitation of subsidized fuel that will be implemented this year did not significantly impact on the company because of the limitation is only intended for private cars while the contribution from the sale of subsidized fuel is only about 5% of total sales volume.
• Action & Recommendation. We still maintain our recommendation and Target Price as we look at the target company's relatively conservative compared with our estimate while the growth potential of petroleum and coal logistics are still promising. Currently, trading at 12.3x PE'12F AKRA. Our Price Target is at Rp3, 600 reflecting PE'12F 13.9x with 14% upside. BUY
BBNI fr BAHANA SEC (DX):: Recommendation and valuation: Strong BUY on deep discount While many challenges Remain, BBNI is set to stay on course with its recent progress in our view. That said, We believe BBNI's recent share price under performance (exhibit 4) is unjustified. BBNI As We expect to perform better than the industry's performance this year, We reiterate BUY on the stock with target price of IDR5, 300, reflecting 42% discount to the sector's 2.8X P / BV.